MEDINAH, Ill

MEDINAH, Ill. -- For the record, Riles had the first pick in our Ryder Cup draft and he took Team USA. Very cagey on his part. He gets to be Captain America and I get stuck explaining an uncomfortable truth:

Team Europe is going to win.

I'm certainly not rooting against the Americans, but how can you objectively look at this matchup and think Team USA is going to be showering in champagne late Sunday? How can you crunch the numbers and somehow come up with a home team victory?

Answer: You can't.

The Europeans have won six of the past eight Ryder Cups. They've won huge (in 2006, 2004). They've won small (2010, 2002, 1997, 1995). They've won over there (2010, 2006, 2002, 1997). They've won over here (2004, 1995).

They've got the best golfer on the planet -- Rory McIlroy. Greg Norman says he's so good that he intimidates the second best player in the world, Tiger Woods.

Actually, I think the only things that bother Tiger are camera shutters, TMZ and male pattern baldness. So I'm not buying what Norman is selling. But put it this way: McIlroy isn't intimidated by Woods, or any member of Team USA. And that probably goes for most, if not all, of Team Europe's players.

If you're European captain Jose Maria Olazabal, your head hits the pillow each night knowing that Team USA doesn't have a player with a winning Ryder Cup record. Not Tiger. Not Phil Mickelson. Not anybody on the 12-man roster.

Team Europe has eight players with winning records, including Sergio Garcia (14-6-4), who suddenly remembers how to putt whenever a Ryder Cup rolls around. And the only thing louder than Ian Poulter's clothes is his play during the Cup. He's 8-3-1, unbeaten in singles and generally acts like somebody plunged an adrenalin needle into his heart.

Luke Donald is 8-2-1 overall. Lee Westwood is 16-11-6. And nobody on Team USA is in a hurry to see Graeme McDowell's name (4-2-2) on the daily pairings sheet.

Did I mention that Team USA has four rookies on its team? Team Europe has just one -- Nicolas Colsaerts, and he just happens to hit the ball longer than anybody in the field.

Experience matters in the Ryder Cup. A lot. One-third of the Team USA roster has never stood on the first tee of a Ryder Cup match and experienced the sheer terror and pressure of playing in this event. Nothing against Webb Simpson and his Presidents Cup appearance, but it's not the Ryder Cup.

The Europeans have four players (McIlroy, Donald, Westwood and Martin Kaymer) who know what it's like to be the No. 1-ranked player in the world. Team USA has one (Woods).

The Europeans live for the Ryder Cup. So does their captain. Olazabal had a career 18-8-5 record in the Cup and was part of the first European team to win on American soil (1987). So he's not going to be flustered by the pro-USA crowds at Medinah. Nor will his team.

This is going to be close. Very close.

The "Medinah Maulers," as Riles calls Team USA (sounds like someone I know has already applied for a copyright and purchased a silk-screening machine), are formidable. On paper, it could be one of the strongest teams the USA has had.

But Olazabal didn't just fall off the golf cart. He isn't going to back down to DLIII, or to this being an away game. You don't think he has a plan, too?

I'll give Riles this much: the Medinah crowds will be fully engaged come Sunday. No Bears game that day; they play Monday night.

I won't be surprised if Team USA wins. But I'm still going with the defending champs, barely. A 14½-13½ finish sounds about right.

These are the facts. And sorry, but not even Captain America can refute them.